Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on February 23, 2010

Locking Stance: LOCKING    Mortgage Bonds: +37bp

Mortgage backed securities are continuing their move higher, adding to the corrective move, bringing them closer to the end of a solid retracement.  This move is on some favorable data, which is always a good thing and may bring about change, but right now it still doesn’t look like more than a correction.

As mentioned, data came in favorably this morning.  Some subtle data did not, such as the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Store Sales which was better than expected.  Redbook beat expectations also.  But more important data is what truly needs to be looked at.  The S&P Case-Shiller HPI showed another set of declines, but the seasonal factors need to be looked at as well.  The Composite 10 dropped slightly to 158.18 from 158.49 and the Composite 20 dropped slightly from 146.28 to 145.90.  To get an idea of the seasonally adjusted outlook, look at these numbers.  The 10-city not adjusted showed month/month was –0.2%, the same as last month, but when it is adjusted, the month/month was 0.3%, slightly better than last month’s adjusted 0.2%.  But the big news was the Consumer Confidence which was a big surprise.  Consumer Confidence came in at 46.0, well below the 55.0 expected and that is sending MBS prices higher.  Once again, this is likely just a retracement and nothing more, at least that is how it still looks at this point.

What does this mean for Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates remain edging lower, but this may be coming to an end.  Things may change in the near future, but the outlook remains most favorable for higher mortgage rates down the road.

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