Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on January 22, 2010

Locking Stance: LOCKING    Mortgage Bonds: –12bp

Mortgage backed securities enjoyed a pretty good day yesterday, closing up 25 basis points and above their 100-day MA.  The 50-day MA appears to be holding as resistance now, so if you are closing soon, go ahead and lock in those recent gains.  For the adventurous, we are essentially in an uptrend and may see lower mortgage rates down the road, but that is not a guarantee at this point.

There is no data today, so stocks and news will be in the driver’s seat.  MBS prices have enjoyed a decent little runup and it may be time for a “pullback” before attempting their next move higher.  The reality is that this last move higher has not seen a solid retracement yet, meaning they are due for a reasonable move lower.  In fact, I would expect them to drop below the 200-day MA and test the support of the rising 10-day.  Stochastic indications have moved into the overbought spectrum and support the need for this corrective move.

On a side note, and for the mortgage professionals, I know many rate advisory services have been attacking the “free” advisory services like my own saying this advice is costing you more than their services cost in missed opportunities.  Well, I do not know about other free services out there, but if you followed those advisory services on Jan. 13th, you would have locked at a nearly one point loss, or $3,000 on a $300,000 loan in comparison to today.  That loss may be realized solely by you, your client, or both and shows how paid services can cost you even more than their subscription fees.  Make sure you are following the right advice for your clients, even getting differing viewpoints on whether to lock or not.  That being said, I hope to have a new service up and running at http://mbscommentary.com this Monday, though a lot of work still need to be done.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates are likely going to edge higher today and for a little while.  The outlook is still not solid, though the positives generally outweigh the negatives in the long run.  I plan on being back to floating once I know support holds.

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