Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on January 14, 2010

Locking Stance:  LOCKING    Mortgage Bonds: +12bp

Mortgage backed securities are edging higher this morning, up 12bp after falling 34bp yesterday.  The reason for switching back to the locking stance is that it appears that the move higher over the past day and the beginning of yesterday was a “fake out”, meaning it moved above the trend line but then quickly came back below it as it sometimes does.  This latest “peak” was lower than the last one as MBS prices fell yesterday and that could mean the resumption of the downtrend.

As for today, Jobless Claims came in at 444K, just above estimates of 437K, though the 4-week moving average fell to 440.75K.  Export Prices moved up 0.6%, bringing the year/year rate to 3.4% while Import Prices rose 0.0%, bringing its year/year rate to 8.6%.  But the big data play today, as I mentioned yesterday, was Retail Sales.  Retail Sales was well below expectations of 0.4% with a –0.3% reported.  Even removing autos from the equation didn’t help as the results were –0.2% versus expectations of 0.2%.  With Retail Sales and Jobless Claims coming in favorably for mortgage bonds, one would like to see more strength in MBS prices.  The lack of significant improvement today is another sign the next leg lower in MBS prices may be on the way.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  It appears the hope for lower mortgage rates may have been crushed yesterday as the charts are again pointing towards higher mortgage rates.

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