Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on December 24, 2009

Locking Stance: CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING    Mortgage Bonds: –6bp

Mortgage backed securities fell from their highs yesterday, ending the day up a mere 3 basis points and causing another panic to lock amongst the “gurus”.  Hey, on a day-by-day outlook, that is not a bad decision, but on the longer term, one has to wonder.  Sorry, just thinking out loud.  The fall was likely due to the Treasury Announcements and was not entirely unexpected.

MBS prices have lost the 3 basis points they gained yesterday, but we are still sitting on support and we have yet to see a retracement of their last massive move lower.  They may have a bit to fall yet before that move happens, though typically we do not see a “pause” in the trend, so a bounce is likely.  Do not get me wrong, on the whole, MBS prices are in a downtrend and mortgage rates will be moving higher.

Stochastic indications remain oversold and showing some desperation for a corrective move higher.  The 10-day has now plummeted through the 100-day MA and is crossing the 200-day MA today.  All other MAs are flattening out or have already turned lower. 

Data today included the Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims.  The market will be closed at 2:00 today in advance of the Christmas break.  And yes, the markets will be closed tomorrow.  Jobless Claims were lower than expected, coming in at 452K versus 470K.  That is likely the cause for the dip this morning.  Durable Goods Orders were below expectations overall with a result of 0.2% versus expectations of 0.5%, but were up from –0.6% last report.  Since one of the main reasons for the miss overall was Boeing, when transportation is removed, Durable Goods Orders were at 2.0%, up from –1.3% last report and not a bad report.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Today may see some movement in mortgage rates, though they will likely hold fairly steady unless other news “spooks” them one way or the other.  The short term (few days) still likely holds the chance to edge out a better rate if you have not locked yet, but the long-term outlook still points towards higher mortgage rates.

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