Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on November 16, 2009

Locking Stance: LOCKING    Mortgage Bonds: +3bp

First off, if you would like my weekly recap and forecast, check out my weekly Mortgage Market Update over at Lenderama, and you can see what my thoughts are for the week ahead.  Notice I have changed my stance back to a locking one, and that post will help you understand why.  Now let’s get down to today.

Retail Sales gets the week started, along with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, but even Retail Sales is failing to move the markets.  Retail Sales came in at 1.4%, well above expectations of 0.9%, but when you take autos out of the mix, things look different with a 0.2% versus 0.4% miss.  That means overall sales are not as good as they seem since there was a major rebound in car sales.  The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed that the General Business Conditions Index was 23.51, well below the consensus of 29.0, and a significant drop from last month’s 34.57.  This still shows strong growth (above 0) for the New York region, but shows growth is dampening and the employment component is showing only the slightest positive bias for monthly hiring.  Look to Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed Survey to be more impactful.

So why are MBS prices not reacting much to this data?  For starters, they are up against tough overhead resistance.  Add to that the fact that stock traders are on the run on the hopes that Big Ben (Ben Bernanke) will say something about the need to start raising rates to protect the dollar, though I doubt it since he prefers to drive down the dollar’s value internationally despite the rhetoric on a “strong dollar policy”.  But with Japan’s economy growing and other central banks maintaining or even raising their rates, the dollar is getting demolished and Big Ben and his gang are going to be forced to do something eventually.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates will likely hold fairly steady or even increase slightly today.  The outlook is for higher mortgage rates short-term, though lower mortgage rates may be seen again down the road.

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