Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on November 12, 2009

Locking Stance:  CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING    Mortgage Bonds: –9bp

Mortgage backed securities are down on the day at the moment, and may stay below the flatline as the day continues.  Do not worry much as we have seen support at the 25-day MA hold and the 50-day MA is moving up for the positive crossover I had talked about before.

This morning’s data released thus far has been the weekly Jobless Claims and the MBA Purchase Applications.  Purchase Applications dropped 11.7% and that could mean that home sales may be dropping off again as it fell to a 9-year low.  Refinance Applications, however, rose 11.3%, bringing the refinance percentage up to 71.5% of total applications, the highest since May, as mortgage rates are falling with the average now at 4.90%.  Jobless Claims were slightly below expectations, coming in at 502K versus 512K and bring the 4-week moving average to 519.75K.  Continuing Claims continued to fall, now at 5.631 million, though as in the past most of the fall was likely due to expiration of benefits rather than new hiring.  We still have Crude Inventories coming up soon, some Treasury Announcements shortly thereafter, but the main focus from here will be this afternoon’s 30-year T-Bond auction.

Looking at the charts, we still see mostly positive indications with stochastics continuing their drive higher, now approaching the overbought spectrum.  The 50-day MA is now approaching the 25-day MA and a positive crossover is all but guaranteed.  MBS prices continue their battle to develop a new trend, the question will be can they create an uptrend and bring mortgage rates lower or not.  Only time will tell for sure, but it is beginning to look like a sideways trading pattern will be the likely outcome.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates will likely hold steady and there remains a chance of lower mortgage rates.  The outlook for mortgage rates is still good for lower mortgage rates, though we may see them hold steady.

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