Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on September 10, 2009

Locking Stance: CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING    Mortgage Bonds:  +22bp

Sorry about a double posting yesterday as I tried to get a post off via my Blackberry, but obviously failed to realize that it was being posted even though my phone said it wasn’t.  Anyhow, I decided to include the recap in this post, so here it goes.

The big news of the day was the close above the 200-day moving average, which will allow continued movement higher, though a correction may need to take place still, more on that later.  Both Purchase Applications and Refinance Applications jumped last week, up 9.5% and 22.5% respectively, which is sort of strange to me as rates appear to be heading lower, if not merely holding steady.  I guess people don’t pay attention to the news, or this site.  Treasury Auctions continue to have strong demand, helping mortgage backed securities as well.  And the Fed’s Beige Book was released and showed an economic outlook that remains “cautiously positive”.

Now for today.  Jobless Claims were lower than expectations, coming in at 550K versus 565K with continuing benefits dropping to 6.088M.  However, the International Trade report was released and showed the Trade Balance Level (aka Balance of Trade) was considerably worse than expectations, coming in at $-32.0B versus $-28.0B.  But what’s a few billion when our government is tossing around trillions without much thought these days?  Still to come is Crude Inventories, Dennis Lockhart’s speech, Tim Giethner’s speech, Donald Kohn’s speech and, likely most importantly, the 30-year Treasury Bond Auction.

On the technical side of things, Stochastic indications remain on the edge of the overbought spectrum, though there is room for upward movement in MBS pricing.  The 25-day moving average has now started a break-away from the 50-day moving average and is looking to make a positive crossover of the 100-day moving average in the near future.  Mortgage bonds are again trading above their 200-day moving average, and even currently breaking above the overhead resistance that had been holding them back the last four trading days.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates will continue to hold steady or improve for the foreseeable future.

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