Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on August 14, 2009

Locking Stance: CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING    Mortgage Bonds: +41bp

Mortgage backed securities are finally showing strength again, backed by several favorable data reports and a fairly decent Treasury Auction yesterday afternoon.  While there still are some negative indications to be seen, the recent move higher has now been backed by solid news, which keeps the data tug-of-war going.

I apologize for the tardiness of this morning’s report but I just arrived at my hotel room in Brasil where I will be camped at for the weekend, only 2 hours late.  This morning we saw the release of the CPI (Consumer Price Index), Industrial Production, and Consumer Sentiment and the two key reports favored MBS pricing.  CPI showed inflation continued to remain under control, coming in slightly lower than expected at both the overall and core levels.  Consumer Sentiment is the real key to today’s move as it missed by a long shot, coming in at 63.2 versus estimates of 69.0.  Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization don’t affect the markets that much and they were only slightly better than expected anyway.

On the technical side, mortgage bonds are fighting with their 200-day moving average and are currently winning by holding on to levels just above.  Stochastic indications have turned more positive, though not entirely.  And pricing has clearly broken above the most recent top, which is a good sign as well.  Overall, the outlook is not entirely certain, however things are looking better since yesterday afternoon’s rally.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates are edging lower and may continue to do so, but the outlook is uncertain at this point.

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