Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on July 17, 2009

Locking Stance: LOCKING    Mortgage Bonds: –9bp

Yesterday, mortgage backed securities managed to hold on to their gains and even close above the coveted 200-day moving average, but the charts are painting a somewhat unclear picture right now.  There is both positive and negative indications within the charts and extreme caution needs to be adhered to at this point.  Before I get into the technical indications, let’s hit today’s data.

The only set of data on the docket for today was this morning’s Housing Starts, which includes Housing Starts and Building Permits, both of which were better than expected.  Housing Starts came in at 582K (up from 532K) and Building Permits moved higher to 563K (up from 518K).  This report follows on the heels of yesterday afternoon’s climb in the Housing Market Index.

Getting back to the charts, we have a mixed bag of indications, though the negative seems to weigh heavier at this time.  MBS pricing is off their highs of the day and are currently back below their 200-day moving average slightly.  With the recent uptrend being broken, the best we were looking at was a sideways trading pattern, but even that appears to be in jeopardy.  While we see 25-day moving average moving above the 200-day moving average (positive), we see the 50-day moving average rushing down to meet current MBS pricing levels.  We are also looking at a potential positive crossover in stochastics, which are on middle ground right now.  Overall, the negatives outweigh the positives in the current snapshot, so I am back to a locking stance.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates are likely going to start moving higher again and the future is uncertain, though higher mortgage rates appear the more likely outcome.

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