Florida Mortgage Rates – Morning Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on March 13, 2009

Locking Stance: CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING    Mortgage Bonds: –22bp

Mortgage backed securities dropped lower this morning, being held down by their current ceiling of resistance, their 50-day moving average.  However, their 25-day moving average also is still holding, acting as a floor of support, so mortgage bonds are now trapped between these two levels.  One will have to eventually break, but until that happens, the future of mortgage rates cannot be foretold with accuracy.

MBS withstood some tough selling pressures yesterday, and even this morning.  With stocks expected to continue their rally into today, those pressures will remain.  Yesterday’s Retail Sales numbers certainly were not favorable for mortgage bonds, but the afternoon’s 30-year Treasury Auction went well with a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 2.40 and the yield coming in 4 basis points below expectations at 3.640%. 

M2 Money Supply rose $29.8 billion for the week of 3/2/2009.  This morning’s Balance of Trade came in above expectations with a showing of $-36.0 billion versus expectations of $-38.1 billion.  Consumer Sentiment will be out just before 10:00, so markets may get volatile around that time again.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  You can expect mortgage rates to hold fairly steady for today, even into next week, but the future remains unclear.  I am holding my current stance as long as the potential for lower mortgage rates exists, but that can change quickly as you have seen already this week.

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