Florida Mortgage Rates – Evening Report

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on December 3, 2008

Locking Stance: CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING    Mortgage Bonds: -6bp

Well, mortgage bonds managed to even get their heads above water today before falling back to down 6 basis points at the closing.  There was plenty of data to be digested as well as Fed speeches, Lacker being more in line with what I have been saying for over a year, which is to not just forget about inflation.

While I bring up the fact that we (and especially the Fed) cannot ignore inflation, it is certainly not going to be a factor for near term trading, and the charts are reflective of that.  There is still plenty of room for a pullback in mortgage bond pricing, but with what lies ahead, namely Friday’s jobs data, we should see a rally in bond pricing which would result in lower Florida Mortgage Rates.

Tomorrow’s only data release is the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which paints a fairly nice picture of the current job market, though it is not as important as Friday’s data.  Based on the reports we have been seeing, Non-farm Payrolls could be far worse than the estimates of -300K, possibly even coming in as low as -500K according to some.  Either way, unless the data throws an upside surprise, lower mortgage rates should be here by week’s end, possibly even the lowest we have seen all year.

Caution always remains in this volatile market, and there are good reasons for it.  While bonds have held support today, they face tough resistance as well if they are to send mortgage rates to the lowest rates in over two years.  We saw the jobs data fail to invoke a rally last month, so we will have to see if bonds can rally around the data this time.

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