Florida Mortgage Rate Forecast – September 9, 2010

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on September 9, 2010

Locking Stance:  LOCKING     Mortgage Bonds:  -28bp

Mortgage backed securities are enjoying another day of descending prices.  As we have stated before, the charts were certainly turning ugly and appear to be getting uglier daily right now.  It does not matter which chart you are following, be it the 3.5% FNMA mortgage bond or the 4.0% FNMA mortgage bond, they both are not looking good.  In fact, on both charts, a head and shoulders pattern has formed, a generally bearish pattern.  As a result, mortgage rates are continuing their rise.  I love how some so-called experts stated that yesterday’s move showed no clear technical signal.  Of course they kept their floating recommendation throughout yesterday as well.  All the more reason you need to be listening to several sources, if not learn this stuff from the people that have a record of greater accuracy!

This morning’s Jobless Claims data was the culprit for today’s drop.  Jobless Claims came in at 451K versus expectations of 470K and that lowered the 4-week moving average to 477.75K.  The interesting aspect was that 9 states needed to be estimated due to delays tied to the holiday shortened week, so you can expect next week’s data to include a revision to this week’s, good or bad.  The International Trade report was also released, coming in at $-42.8B, above estimates of   $-46.8B and up from last report’s $-49.9B.  Yesterday’s 10-year T-Note auction was strong with solid buyside demand and the strongest bid/cover since June.  The Beige Book also talked about a weak economy and these latter factors kept MBS prices from completely crashing yesterday.  We still have the 30-year T-Bond auction coming up at 1:00, so we may get a boost, or another nail in the coffin.  Be ready, but it doesn’t look good at the moment.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates continue their slow rise and it now looks like their pattern will be to continue this climb for the long run.  The future is not etched in stone but things are not shaping up for the record low mortgage rates to continue.

Leave a Comment

Previous post:

Next post: