Florida Mortgage Rate Forecast – August 4, 2010

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on August 4, 2010

Locking Stance:  CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING     Mortgage Bonds:  -9bp

Mortgage backed securities are down slightly today, but are still hovering right at resistance and with today’s data that is good news.  It means traders have already factored in the data and/or are skeptical about “reality”.  They likely are just going to wait until Friday’s Jobs Jamboree to see exactly what that reality is.

This morning started off with the MBA Purchase Applications report, which showed purchase applications up 1.5% and refinance applications up 1.3%.  Hurrah, positive numbers!  Right?  Well, don’t get too excited because they have been beaten down so bad this does not amount to much at all.  Next up was today’s most important report, the ADP Employment Report, which estimates private payrolls will be up 42K.  Two things here…1) it is up and is better than expected; 2) It is still well below even the 100K figure that Ben Bernanke has said was also too low for an economic recovery.  Friday will be interesting to say the least.  The Treasury Department then announced the numbers for next week’s auctions:  $34.0B 3-year T-Notes, $24.0B 10-year T-Notes, and $16.0B 30-year T-Bonds.  And finally, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was released, aka ISM Services Index, and was reported at 54.3, above expectations of 53.0 and last report’s 53.8.  This number is still not a big boost, but it is better than expectations.  Overall, data has been unfavorable for low mortgage rates today, but MBS prices have only dipped slightly and are off their lows.  They continue to hover around their resistance layer.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates will likely hold steady today, maybe even tomorrow, and will not likely make a move until Friday.  Concerns do remain, however the long-term and short-term outlooks are still favorable.

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