Florida Mortgage Rate Forecast – August 19, 2010

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on August 19, 2010

Locking Stance:  CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING     Mortgage Bonds:  +34bp

You can clearly see why we do not “rush” to change stances even when others do, as we maintain a big picture perspective, not merely a knee-jerk reaction to daily market movements.  We still have our concerns, but as we mentioned yesterday, this morning’s data would be the deciding factor on whether or not the trend was to be broken.

Jobless Claims got the day started with another huge miss, coming in at 500K, well above the 480K expected.  That is the highest number we have seen since November and the 4-week moving average is now at the highest seen since December at 482.5K.  Hey, but I am sure that Obama can find a way to blame Bush still.  Leading Indicators came in inline with expectations at 0.1%, and the markets didn’t react, mostly due to the release of the Philadelphia Fed Survey at the same time.  The Philadelphia Fed Survey, the biggest report of the day, came in with a big miss also.  The Philadelphia Fed came in at –7.7 versus the 7.0 expected and down from 5.1 in the last report.  That is a huge difference in economic outlook and MBS prices are climbing to test resistance at their current levels and now we must wait and see if the turn around will lead to the next record low mortgage rates.  Still to come this afternoon is the Treasury’s Announcement of the next set of Treasury Auctions.

What does this mean for Florida Mortgage Rates?  Mortgage rates are now edging lower as we expected and we may be headed to new record low mortgage rates.  The outlook remains favorable for steady to improving mortgage rates.

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