Florida Mortgage Market – Forecast for the Week

by Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner on April 28, 2008

This week is starting off rather tame as well, but don’t sit idly by.  There will be plenty of action as the week goes on and you can bet mortgage bonds will be moving this week.  The main event, actually three, will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, the PCE data on Thursday and Friday’s Jobs Jamboree.  Remember that mortgage rates generally move opposite of what the Fed does.  Also, the PCE is the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, so if it shows above the “comfort zone”, it could make the Fed look bad (like they aren’t doing a good enough job at that already), and spark more inflationary fears sending rates even higher.

Looking at the technical side of things, bonds will have a tough week ahead.  There are plenty of catalysts to break barriers, but those barriers may be on the support side. 

Bonds are already starting the week off below their 50-day moving average and not too far above their 200-day moving average.  If the data pushes bonds lower, that all important 200-day level may break this week.  The general trend right now favors lower movement, though stochastics are towards the oversold side (not there yet).

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